when we think of fires, we may think of the western us being more at risk, but we are also not immune here in central Iowa. Ryan slater of the Iowa dnR's tells us more about our risk here locally. We see *** trend upwards of the number of fires occurring across Iowa across everywhere the whole nation. Actually, we met slater at the site of what was *** large brush fire in Dallas center. Back in november, it was one of several spanning from late october through early november. It could have been worse *** little over *** week before the Dallas county fire wildfires near Lincoln Nebraska prompted evacuations and burned homes primarily wind is *** big factor in Iowa to that drives our wildfires, There are two fire seasons in Iowa in the spring when we come out of *** winter, that doesn't have *** whole lot of snow in our fall season when we have all the corn standing and it's, it's, it's dried out and ready for harvest and it's typically worse because we have more ignition sources in the field with combines and tractors and erratic winter snowpack and *** warming climate is making our fire season longer while our fires can be fast moving, they typically aren't as explosive as the fires in the west portions of the west have really been in *** *** multidecadal drought. Uh and so as *** result of that, um, you know, areas that typically receive precipitation aren't getting the precipitation or at least their their normal precipitation budget. National weather service. Meteorologist. Labant veins says more intense droughts are causing hardier vegetation to dry out, leading to more biofuels that can ignite and create explosive. And extreme wildfires In California, 18 of the top 20 largest wildfires have occurred since 2000. So what changes will be in store for our future if we continue on *** path toward increasing and extreme wildfires? Obviously you think about what people along the gulf coast or the atlantic coast have experienced with multiple hurricane strikes. You know, that certainly uh, tends to drive the, the insurance premiums up. It's also quite possible that, you know, maybe some policy changes will be enacted um, to hopefully help mitigate some of these, uh, you know, help mitigate some of these more extreme fire episodes. That being said, you know, mitigation techniques can only go so far. And, and really the big sort of really the big drive for some of these for the potential for these larger fires is largely going to be, you know, what our climate does. These fires can also generate problems for people, not even in the direct path of them. When the fire generates *** lot of smoke. And if that inversion is in place, you can have very, very smoky conditions and the air quality can actually be quite poor as our planet warms fires could become more of *** problem here in Iowa, I'm meteorologist trey Fulbright
Forecasting Our Future: Future climate favors more wildfires
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Updated: 3:28 PM CST Dec 18, 2022
One of the conditions that will be a part of our future is wildfires. Wildfires have been and will continue to be a natural part of our ecosystem, but a warming climate will create conditions favorable for more extreme wildfires and a longer-lasting fire season.The long-term climate signal data points to much of the western United States being at a greater risk for major wildfires. The trend is not good — there has already been a substantial increase in the acreage of land burned over the last 40 years across the western United States. According to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the western United States has seen a 90% increase in the amount of mean acreage burned by wildfires between the time periods of 1984-2000 and 2001-18. From 1984-2000, an annual average of 1.69 million acres were burned, but the annual average increased to 3.35 million acres from 2001-18. During the astounding 2020 fire season, a total of 8.8 million acres were burned. What is behind this increase in fires? Human-induced warming of the climate has led to conditions that create a more favorable environment for extreme fire behavior and a longer-lasting fire season. Increased warming of the planet has led to more blocking weather patterns that promote longer and more intense heat waves and droughts. As the atmosphere heats up, it expands and has a shortage of water vapor. As a result, the hardy native vegetation and grasses evaporate quickly and become biofuels. A spark from human carelessness or some other source ignites a fire, and this fire has the real estate and conditions to become explosive and spread quickly. Meteorologist Lamont Bain with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona, describes the conditions that have led to much of the western United States facing a higher risk of fires: "One of the things we’ve seen over the last two years is that portions of the West have really been in a multidecadal drought. And so, as a result of that, areas that typically receive precipitation aren’t getting the precipitation — or at least their normal precipitation budget. They’re failing to reach that. And with the warmer conditions that we’re seeing and the drier conditions, we’re really starting to see a lot of the vegetation kind of remain in this dry state." The fire behavior is also more extreme and creates a dangerous setup for firefighters and residents living in the region. Bain states that fire embers are being lofted miles away from the parent fire which creates spot fires. These fires have a vast impact even here in the Midwest and Central Iowa. Smoke plumes travel thousands of miles reducing visibility and air quality, which creates health problems for those exposed. While the long-term climate data points to much of the western U.S. being at a higher risk for significant wildfires in the future, we are also not immune in central Iowa. We spoke with Ryan Schlater, a contact fire specialist, at the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to learn more about our risk. Schlater says Iowa has two fire seasons — one in the spring, the other in the fall. The fall season is typically worse. An erratic snowpack is often an issue around here, especially during the spring months. A lack of snow causes vegetation to dry out and be ready to ignite, especially on a windy day.So what’s ahead for the future, and what are some steps we can take to prepare and mitigate?Schlater encourages Iowans to do the following: "Clear around their homes of leaves and debris. Clean out your gutters because embers can catch in the gutters and then catch the roof on fire. And then we ask anything, like if you have a wooden deck, to make sure there's no leaves underneath the wooden deck, don't store your firewood next to your house, things like that. As far as in the field, we that farmers carry along a fire extinguisher on their pieces of equipment when they're out combining or working in the fields. We they blow out their combines of all the leftover corn residue chaff-type stuff and in vulnerable areas where it can get hot. , maintain your bearings, grease, your bearings, grease, your grease, your farm implements."Meteorologist Lamont Bain believes that there is a potential for increased insurance premiums along with the possibility of policies to help mitigate these extreme fires. Bain also states that even with mitigation techniques, the big driver of these large fires will highly depend on the future of our climate.
One of the conditions that will be a part of our future is wildfires. Wildfires have been and will continue to be a natural part of our ecosystem, but a warming climate will create conditions favorable for more extreme wildfires and a longer-lasting fire season.
The long-term climate signal data points to much of the western United States being at a greater risk for major wildfires. The trend is not good — there has already been a substantial increase in the acreage of land burned over the last 40 years across the western United States. According to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the western United States has seen a 90% increase in the amount of mean acreage burned by wildfires between the time periods of 1984-2000 and 2001-18. From 1984-2000, an annual average of 1.69 million acres were burned, but the annual average increased to 3.35 million acres from 2001-18. During the astounding 2020 fire season, a total of 8.8 million acres were burned.
What is behind this increase in fires? Human-induced warming of the climate has led to conditions that create a more favorable environment for extreme fire behavior and a longer-lasting fire season. Increased warming of the planet has led to more blocking weather patterns that promote longer and more intense heat waves and droughts. As the atmosphere heats up, it expands and has a shortage of water vapor. As a result, the hardy native vegetation and grasses evaporate quickly and become biofuels. A spark from human carelessness or some other source ignites a fire, and this fire has the real estate and conditions to become explosive and spread quickly.
Meteorologist Lamont Bain with the National Weather Service in Flagstaff, Arizona, describes the conditions that have led to much of the western United States facing a higher risk of fires: "One of the things we’ve seen over the last two years is that portions of the West have really been in a multidecadal drought. And so, as a result of that, areas that typically receive precipitation aren’t getting the precipitation — or at least their normal precipitation budget. They’re failing to reach that. And with the warmer conditions that we’re seeing and the drier conditions, we’re really starting to see a lot of the vegetation kind of remain in this dry state." The fire behavior is also more extreme and creates a dangerous setup for firefighters and residents living in the region. Bain states that fire embers are being lofted miles away from the parent fire which creates spot fires. These fires have a vast impact even here in the Midwest and Central Iowa. Smoke plumes travel thousands of miles reducing visibility and air quality, which creates health problems for those exposed.
While the long-term climate data points to much of the western U.S. being at a higher risk for significant wildfires in the future, we are also not immune in central Iowa. We spoke with Ryan Schlater, a contact fire specialist, at the Iowa Department of Natural Resources to learn more about our risk. Schlater says Iowa has two fire seasons — one in the spring, the other in the fall. The fall season is typically worse. An erratic snowpack is often an issue around here, especially during the spring months. A lack of snow causes vegetation to dry out and be ready to ignite, especially on a windy day.
So what’s ahead for the future, and what are some steps we can take to prepare and mitigate?
Schlater encourages Iowans to do the following: "Clear around their homes of leaves and debris. Clean out your gutters because embers can catch in the gutters and then catch the roof on fire. And then we ask anything, like if you have a wooden deck, to make sure there's no leaves underneath the wooden deck, don't store your firewood next to your house, things like that. As far as in the field, we [recommend] that farmers carry along a fire extinguisher on their pieces of equipment when they're out combining or working in the fields. We [recommend] they blow out their combines of all the leftover corn residue chaff-type stuff and in vulnerable areas where it can get hot. [Finally], maintain your bearings, grease, your bearings, grease, your grease, your farm implements."
Meteorologist Lamont Bain believes that there is a potential for increased insurance premiums along with the possibility of policies to help mitigate these extreme fires. Bain also states that even with mitigation techniques, the big driver of these large fires will highly depend on the future of our climate.
