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Forecasting Our Future: Growing corn amidst changing weather patterns

Forecasting Our Future: Growing corn amidst changing weather patterns
Iowa Corn fields like this one are mostly barren now, but earlier this fall, farmers across the state had their second best yields on record. But as weather patterns continue changing, is it possible that bountiful harvest like this one will become *** thing of the past. Our yields this year were really good in 2022, which was very surprise to be quite honest. David weaver farms 1500 acres outside the town of rippy, he says, despite this year's strong crop, he's noticed weather patterns becoming more extreme in recent years, particularly rainfall getting *** one or two inch rain. Now we usually get *** two or three inch rain, sometimes *** four inch rain last summer and we got *** seven inch rain and changes like that have taken place across Iowa, oddly enough, despite the drought that we're in right now, we've gotten wetter overall, bigger rainfall amounts, bigger, individual rainfalls and then time of year are the big issues with this too. We're seeing more of our precipitation um focused in in spring, some in winter along with rainfall, temperatures are also shifting. We are getting warmer. *** lot of that warming is being driven by wintertime warming and by warming of our overnight temperatures. Too much warmth during summer, nights can stress crops during *** crucial part of the growing season. While excessive rainfall early and late in the year can delay fieldwork. Despite this, corn farming keeps getting more productive. Thanks to improvements in plant and farm management, corn yields in Iowa have risen for the past several decades back in the late eighties and early nineties, an average acre of Iowa farmland produced about 100 and 20 bushels of corn By the last five years, that number had risen to nearly 200 bushels per acre. And while yields are expected to continue increasing research, including recent studies from Iowa state show the impact of climate change could reduce those gains in the next couple decades. How exactly wetter springs make crops more susceptible to disease while warmer temperatures allow pests to thrive. Another potential challenge is one that hasn't fully materialized yet. We're supposed to get drier, um that more of our rainfall gets pushed to late winter, early spring and then we get drier in the summertime. And that's completely wrong for what happens the way of agriculture here. Historically, Iowa farmers have been able to rely on abundant rainfall during summer months combined with rich topsoil. This Goldilocks, climate has made the state one of the world's bread baskets. But with that changing experts are looking ahead corn is still *** go to crop. However, issues of soil preservation, issues of economic drivers, issues of risk, which is where insurance comes in. May force farmers into different strategies where corn is only one of quite *** few things that they do. We've managed so far to deal with all the variability that we've been handed. The question is, can our rates of genetic gain keep up with any increased risk of, of weather challenges remains to be seen. But I, like I said, I'm optimistic that I think we can out in the field, farmers like David weaver are taking steps of their own. We need to be able to be *** little bit more resilient and I'm not sure what that's gonna look like exactly. But I do think that the soil health is important and having *** good soil structure and the ability to withstand those really dry, dry periods. And I believe personally, that cover crops, one of the things to do that cover crops like this, rye are seated in after the fall, corn harvest and remain through winter, putting nutrients back in the ground and reducing runoff. And in the spring, if we do get *** two or three inch rain, this is going to keep that the soil from eroding away, It's going to make it really makes *** huge difference. Just one way to adapt agriculture for *** changing world.
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Forecasting Our Future: Growing corn amidst changing weather patterns
Despite the summer drought and a wet spring for many, 2022 brought Iowa corn farmers some of their best yields on record. Last month, the USDA estimated a statewide average of 202 bushels per acre from this year's harvest, down slightly from last year's record of 204. Strong crops like those could be in jeopardy from weather patterns changing and becoming more extreme, according to Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of USDA's Midwest Climate Hub in Ames. Todey said Iowa is seeing more heavy rainfall events and has gotten wetter overall, but more of that moisture is coming in spring & winter. Temperatures are also warming, but Todey stressed that warming has been uneven. Iowa's winters have warmed, and nighttime temperatures have risen, thanks to increasing humidity.All those changes bring challenges to agriculture.A lack of cool air during summer nights stresses crops, wetter springs delay fieldwork and increase the risk of disease, and longer growing seasons lead to more pests.Todey said Iowa's summers are projected to get drier as well, presenting a problem for crops like corn that need considerable rainfall during that time of year.These factors present a challenge for corn farmers accustomed to steady yield gains over the decades. Dr. David Ertl, director of production technology for the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said improvements in crop genetics and farm management have kept pace with weather variability so far, and he's optimistic that will continue. Other experts, like Scott Johnson, a former corn breeder, see possible changes ahead. He believes future issues like Iowa's loss of valuable topsoil and increasing crop insurance costs might eventually lead farmers into strategies besides the traditional corn-soybean rotation.Planting cover crops is one strategy some farmers have taken up. David Weaver, a farmer near Rippey, seeds a crop of rye onto some of his acres after the main fall harvest. The rye covers a field that would otherwise be barren and vulnerable to runoff between fall and spring planting. "If we do get a two or three-inch rain, this is going to keep the soil from eroding away. It really makes a difference," Weaver said.

Despite the summer drought and a wet spring for many, 2022 brought Iowa corn farmers some of their best yields on record.

Last month, the USDA estimated a statewide average of 202 bushels per acre from this year's harvest, down slightly from last year's record of 204.

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Strong crops like those could be in jeopardy from weather patterns changing and becoming more extreme, according to Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of USDA's Midwest Climate Hub in Ames.

Todey said Iowa is seeing more heavy rainfall events and has gotten wetter overall, but more of that moisture is coming in spring & winter.

Temperatures are also warming, but Todey stressed that warming has been uneven. Iowa's winters have warmed, and nighttime temperatures have risen, thanks to increasing humidity.

All those changes bring challenges to agriculture.

A lack of cool air during summer nights stresses crops, wetter springs delay fieldwork and increase the risk of disease, and longer growing seasons lead to more pests.

Todey said Iowa's summers are projected to get drier as well, presenting a problem for crops like corn that need considerable rainfall during that time of year.

These factors present a challenge for corn farmers accustomed to steady yield gains over the decades.

Dr. David Ertl, director of production technology for the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said improvements in crop genetics and farm management have kept pace with weather variability so far, and he's optimistic that will continue.

Other experts, like Scott Johnson, a former corn breeder, see possible changes ahead. He believes future issues like Iowa's loss of valuable topsoil and increasing crop insurance costs might eventually lead farmers into strategies besides the traditional corn-soybean rotation.

Planting cover crops is one strategy some farmers have taken up.

David Weaver, a farmer near Rippey, seeds a crop of rye onto some of his acres after the main fall harvest.

The rye covers a field that would otherwise be barren and vulnerable to runoff between fall and spring planting.

"If we do get a two or three-inch rain, this is going to keep the soil from eroding away. It really makes a difference," Weaver said.