Forecasting Our Future: Growing corn amidst changing weather patterns

Despite the summer drought and a wet spring for many, 2022 brought Iowa corn farmers some of their best yields on record. Last month, the USDA estimated a statewide average of 202 bushels per acre from this year's harvest, down slightly from last year's record of 204. Strong crops like those could be in jeopardy from weather patterns changing and becoming more extreme, according to Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of USDA's Midwest Climate Hub in Ames. Todey said Iowa is seeing more heavy rainfall events and has gotten wetter overall, but more of that moisture is coming in spring & winter. Temperatures are also warming, but Todey stressed that warming has been uneven. Iowa's winters have warmed, and nighttime temperatures have risen, thanks to increasing humidity.All those changes bring challenges to agriculture.A lack of cool air during summer nights stresses crops, wetter springs delay fieldwork and increase the risk of disease, and longer growing seasons lead to more pests.Todey said Iowa's summers are projected to get drier as well, presenting a problem for crops like corn that need considerable rainfall during that time of year.These factors present a challenge for corn farmers accustomed to steady yield gains over the decades. Dr. David Ertl, director of production technology for the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said improvements in crop genetics and farm management have kept pace with weather variability so far, and he's optimistic that will continue. Other experts, like Scott Johnson, a former corn breeder, see possible changes ahead. He believes future issues like Iowa's loss of valuable topsoil and increasing crop insurance costs might eventually lead farmers into strategies besides the traditional corn-soybean rotation.Planting cover crops is one strategy some farmers have taken up. David Weaver, a farmer near Rippey, seeds a crop of rye onto some of his acres after the main fall harvest. The rye covers a field that would otherwise be barren and vulnerable to runoff between fall and spring planting. "If we do get a two or three-inch rain, this is going to keep the soil from eroding away. It really makes a difference," Weaver said.

AMES, Iowa —

Despite the summer drought and a wet spring for many, 2022 brought Iowa corn farmers some of their best yields on record.

Last month, the USDA estimated a statewide average of 202 bushels per acre from this year's harvest, down slightly from last year's record of 204.

Strong crops like those could be in jeopardy from weather patterns changing and becoming more extreme, according to Dr. Dennis Todey, Director of USDA's Midwest Climate Hub in Ames.

Todey said Iowa is seeing more heavy rainfall events and has gotten wetter overall, but more of that moisture is coming in spring & winter.

Temperatures are also warming, but Todey stressed that warming has been uneven. Iowa's winters have warmed, and nighttime temperatures have risen, thanks to increasing humidity.

All those changes bring challenges to agriculture.

A lack of cool air during summer nights stresses crops, wetter springs delay fieldwork and increase the risk of disease, and longer growing seasons lead to more pests.

Todey said Iowa's summers are projected to get drier as well, presenting a problem for crops like corn that need considerable rainfall during that time of year.

These factors present a challenge for corn farmers accustomed to steady yield gains over the decades.

Dr. David Ertl, director of production technology for the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said improvements in crop genetics and farm management have kept pace with weather variability so far, and he's optimistic that will continue.

Other experts, like Scott Johnson, a former corn breeder, see possible changes ahead. He believes future issues like Iowa's loss of valuable topsoil and increasing crop insurance costs might eventually lead farmers into strategies besides the traditional corn-soybean rotation.

Planting cover crops is one strategy some farmers have taken up.

David Weaver, a farmer near Rippey, seeds a crop of rye onto some of his acres after the main fall harvest.

The rye covers a field that would otherwise be barren and vulnerable to runoff between fall and spring planting.

"If we do get a two or three-inch rain, this is going to keep the soil from eroding away. It really makes a difference," Weaver said.

Forecasting Our Future: Growing corn amidst changing weather patterns

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